Stochastic Modeling of Carcinogenesis
نویسنده
چکیده
Carcinogenesis is the transformation of normal cells into cancer cells. This process has been shown to be of a multistage nature, with stem cells that go through a series of genetic and epigenetic changes that eventually lead to a malignancy. Since the origins of the multistage theory in the 1950s, mathematical modeling has played a prominent role in the investigation of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis. In particular, two stochastic (mechanistic) models, the Armitage-Doll and the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model, are commonly used for cancer risk assessment and the analysis of cancer epidemiology and experimental data. In this mini-course, I will introduce some of the basic biological, epidemiological and mathematical concepts behind the theory of multistage carcinogenesis, and discuss in detail the Armitage-Doll model, the TSCE model and some generalizations. The use of these models for the analysis of cancer epidemiology and experimental data will be described in detail, and some examples will be discussed.
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